Citi
Mejora las perspectivas sobre la zona euro, un cambio de actitud de " core europa " y la posibilidad de que la salida de grecia provoque un terremoto hace que bajen la posibilidad de que grecia salga del euro en el plazo de 18 meses desde un 90% anterior a un 60%
O son los griegos , o la colonia alemana del pireo sera sometida al yugo aleman
Citi igualmente que la estabilidad en la zona euro llegara pronto y centra su foco negativo sobre china
Euro Economics Weekly: Grexit - Delayed But Not Cancelled
• We lower our probability of a Greek exit from the euro (“Grexit”) over the next 12-18 months from 90% to 60%, mainly due to a change in the attitude of euro core members towards it. Politicians probably fear its negative effects on upcoming elections (in Germany) and a diminished economic resilience in the rest of Europe to a shock like Grexit. The recent more cooperative Greek stance, together with some timid improvements in the deficit data, may also have helped. We now estimate the additional money needed to keep Greece afloat in 2013 is relatively small and, hence, fairly easy to find without another difficult approval of support needed from core euro countries.
• However, we think this will still prove a temporary solution. In our view, it will become evident once again that the Greek programme remains off track and Greece’s debt is still unsustainable. Unless a write-off of official debt is agreed upon – quite unlikely, in our view – we think a stalemate between Greece and its international creditors will eventually lead to a withdrawal of international support leaving Grexit as potentially the only available solution for Greece. We see the most likely timing for this to happen as being H1 2014.